A years-long study of Baltimore ninth graders shows a key combination of academic indicators is the strongest predictor of high school success. Baltimore school administrators are now putting its lessons into practice.
One recent afternoon, a slew of education researchers, academics, journalists, and school leaders gathered for a Zoom call. There was the usual chatter, and a continual reshuffling of windows as new attendees popped in, then a hush. Francesca “Frankie” Gamber, executive director of the Baltimore Education Research Consortium (BERC), introduced herself. She was there to debut BERC’s newest report, “Ninth Grade Success in Baltimore City 2024.” But this wasn’t just any report. It was the latest update in a nearly-decade-long study of ninth graders in the Baltimore City Public School System.
“Ninth grade is a critical year for predicting high school graduation rates and overall student success,” Gamber began, highlighting the fruits of BERC’s ongoing collaboration with Baltimore City Schools and spotlighting the report’s key finding. “We now know students promoted from ninth to tenth grade … on time … and without failing any courses … have a 90% likelihood of graduating high school on time. This is data Baltimore City Schools can build upon.”
“The data in this report makes a strong case for continually examining trends and indicators of school success. The Baltimore City Public School System is now taking action to target ninth grade specifically,” said Marcia Davis, director of research operations at BERC and coauthor of the study. “This report is the first in a series of yearly reports that monitor progress toward those goals and spot emerging trends in ninth-grade success in the future.”
Fair warning
BERC’s research on ninth graders began in 2016 as an effort to identify Early Warning Indicators, or EWIs, of students at risk of not graduating from high school. Baltimore City Schools’ officials had long been frustrated by the city’s stubborn graduation rate, which had hovered around 70% for years. They wanted not just to know why things were stuck but to gain practical ideas about how to get them unstuck.
“[O]n-time promotion to tenth grade without course failures . . . captured an important way to define a successful ninth-grade year,” the authors note in “Ninth Grade Success.” “Students attaining this outcome had not only earned all the required credits for promotion to tenth grade but were also not hindered by any course failures that might require credit recovery later to graduate on time.”
Unexpected voices
The study’s methodology is notable for several reasons, not least of which is BERC’s choice to examine ninth grade over others. Eleventh grade is traditionally the focus of colleges, but it comes far too late in the game to correct a foundering student.
“It’s an inflection point in many students’ academic careers,” Davis said. “We now see ninth grade as a sort of ‘make-or-break’ year for students.”
This particular report, Gamber adds, is also notable for the inclusion of student perspectives reflecting on their lived experiences. Having those student voices in this report was important to Gamber, personally. Far too often, she says, researchers overlook the ones who are the subjects of all this research. Rarely, if ever, are student voices sought, much less reported. The BERC team wanted to fill that gap.
In their comments, students weighed in on the findings of the report. They recommended ways schools can help students finish ninth grade on time, including peer mentoring as they move into high school, more consistent and earlier notification of credits needed for promotion as well as credit-recovery options, and, last but not least, greater involvement from sympathetic adult teachers and counselors in their progress.
Next steps
In tandem with BERC’s findings, Baltimore has developed the “Ninth Grade On-Track” program to monitor and work with the city’s ninth graders to get them through this crucial year on a path to graduation. Meanwhile, the BERC team is still working. Future plans include research tracking outcomes after graduation and refining additional strategies for early interventions.
“One of the things that’s been really valuable for us,” said Theresa Jones, chief achievement and accountability officer for Baltimore City Public Schools, during the call, “is that BERC not only helps us unleash the insights but also works alongside us to then make them actionable for schools. That is one of the things that distinguishes this research-practice partnership in ways that have continued to build on the value to the school system over time.”
Jones’s sentiment brought Gamber back to the broader messages she sees in the report, buried deeper than the data itself. For her, the success of this report is about the promise and the power of collaboration.
“Our report is a strong reflection of the dynamism of that research practice and partnership between BERC and Baltimore City Schools,” Gamber said. “This isn’t just some stuffy researchers handing some numbers to a school district. It’s not an auto-pilot report. It’s interactive and it’s evolving.” Baltimore City Schools can build upon.”
“The data in this report makes a strong case for continually examining trends and indicators of school success. The Baltimore City Public School System is now taking action to target ninth grade specifically,” said Marcia Davis, director of research operations at BERC and coauthor of the study. “This report is the first in a series of yearly reports that monitor progress toward those goals and spot emerging trends in ninth-grade success in the future.”
